Adventures in Advanced Baseball Statistics, Part 6: PECOTA!!!1

Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, known to its friends as PECOTA, is a statistic used to forecast players’ performances in the upcoming season. This may be the singularly most important statistic for all of you people who play fantasy baseball. Unfortunately this isn’t one of those stats you can compute for yourself (at least not easily), so I can’t really give you any information that would help you gain an edge in your league.

The way it works, and the reason you can’t compute it yourself, is that it compares a player against a database of over 20,000 other players dating back to WWII. For guys just coming up to the majors it compares them against 15,000 minor league players dating back to 1997. Bladow.

It should also be noted that PECOTA partially gets its name from Bill Pecota who rocked a career .249 batting average, typical of the average PECOTA entry. Now don’t try to tell me you don’t learn something new everyday.

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  1. […] here’s to sabermetrics, and also, why in PECOTA we […]



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